Prior to that he held positions at Seneca Financial Group and Morgan Stanley. Yet, even as the pandemic drags on, the global economy has proven remarkably resilient. Plus, more Ideas from Morgan Stanley's thought leaders. https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-investment-strategy-outlook-2021 Our insightful research, advisory and investing capabilities give us unique and broad perspective on sustainability topics. Our culture of access and inclusion has built our legacy and shapes our future, helping to strengthen our business and bring value to clients. We also discuss the key risks we see ahead, reaffirm our belief that certain megatrends have the potential to outperform significantly, and share some of our favorite trade ideas. At Morgan Stanley, giving back is a core valueâa central part of our culture globally. Learn from our industry leaders about how to manage your wealth and help meet your personal financial goals. (2020 vs. 2021 forecast). In fact, a synchronous global recovery, where growth in both developed and emerging markets accelerate in the same year, has happened only a dozen times over the past 40 yearsâthe last in 2017. The stage could be set for another such sync beginning in the second quarter of 2021. âThis projection stands in stark contrast to the consensus, which forecasts 5.4% global growth and worries that the pandemic will have a bigger impact on private-sector risk appetite and, hence, global growth," says Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist. Though earnings growth should be consistently elevated, valuations appear uneven. One notable exception is the UK, where Brexit could slow the pace of recovery. Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. Meanwhile, China, the first to impose COVID-19 closures, has quickly regained ground, as consumption roars back. The economics team forecasts 5% GDP growth in 2021, which is slightly below the consensus estimate. Our board of directors and senior executives hold the belief that capital can and should benefit all of society. A cornerstone of this outlookâwhich includes positive adjustments to several economic estimates (read the economic outlook here)ârests on sustaining the V-shaped recovery that began in May 2020, leading to 6.4% global GDP growth in 2021 and price appreciation for a wide range of asset classes. … For example, commodity prices tend to rise in the early stages of recovery, but strategists think this strength will be back-loaded and with high dispersion. 1 Oxford Economics, Jones Lang LaSalle; growth rate from 2015 to 3Q 2020. Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals. Morgan Stanley 2021 Global Semiconductor Outlook. Would you like to help us improve our coverage of topics that might interest you? âThe lesson from 2010, which we think also applies to 2021, is that the cycle usually wins out," says Sheets. We offer scalable investment products, foster innovative solutions and provide actionable insights across sustainability issues. Important information. share. Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. 6 Morgan Stanley, 2021 Global Macro Strategy Outlook, Back to Life, Back to Liquidity, 21/11/20. Read the latest insights from this year's TMT U.S. virtual conference. Morgan Stanley Asks: Will The Market Move Towards The Fed, Or Will The Fed Shift Its Reaction Function Towards The Market By Vishwanath Tirupattur, head of Credit Securitized Products Research and Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Log in or sign up to leave a comment Log In Sign Up. Everything we do at Morgan Stanley is guided by our five core values: Do the right thing, put clients first, lead with exceptional ideas, commit to diversity and inclusion, and give back. Hear their stories and learn about how they are redefining the terms of success. âTrade-dependent economies, like Korea and Taiwan, are already well into their recoveries, while in the large, arguably more domestic demand-oriented economies, like India and Brazil, a number of indicators have recently exceeded pre-COVID-19 levels and are registering positive year-on-year growth," Ahya says. All rights reserved. best. Morgan Stanley projects strong global GDP growth of 6.4% for 2021—led first by emerging markets, followed by reopening economies in the U.S. and Europe—in a macro outlook that … During the panel, Johanna Chua from Citi will present the macro-economic outlook and Laura Wang from Morgan Stanley the equity market … 2021 Global Economic Outlook: The Next Phase of the V; 1. âWeâve now transitioned to an early-cycle environment, which implies strong profit growth that we believe is not yet priced into markets, despite the market's recent rally," says Sheets. Risk premium (bp). At Morgan Stanley, youâll find trusted colleagues, committed mentors and a culture that values diverse perspectives, individual intellect and cross-collaboration. Industry Report. 4 See David Esrig and Aric Chang, “Remote work and the future of office space,” J.P. Morgan Asset Management, November 2020. In Europe, where many countries began reimposing COVID restrictions in October as new infection rates climbed, growth is expected to resume as economies reopen. Indeed, Morgan Stanleyâs strategists expect 25% to 30% earnings growth across major equities markets and significant declines in corporate leverageâkey factors in their call to overweight equities and credit vs. government bonds and cash, along with positioning for U.S. dollar weakness. Their forecast calls for 3.2% global GDP growth next year, followed by 3.5% in 2021. That means owning small-caps over large-caps. This raises the eternal question of whether stock prices have already baked in earnings improvements, but the strategists note that global equity valuations look reasonable by many measures, including risk premium relative to historical volatility, and the MSCI World index relative to the Global Purchasing Managers' Index, a key indicator of manufacturing activity. Morgan Stanley economists expect this momentum to continue into next year. Then COVID-19 sent most of Europe into lockdown, resulting in what will likely be the worst year of European relative performance since the 1980s. shape the global economic recovery and your portfolios in 2021. docdro.id/JCnJL7... Industry Report. Morgan Stanley 2021 Global Financials Outlook. Outlook, back to Life, back to Liquidity, 21/11/20 to buy stocks with the lowest expectations ''... Reliance on tech, connectivity and e-commerce mortgages, structured finance and distressed investments ) ) Lang LaSalle, 2020! Our coverage of topics that might interest you emerging markets in 2021 preserve and manage so! Firm ’ s professional history includes experience in investment grade corporate credit, loan... ( U.S an ideas-driven culture that embraces new perspectives to solve complex.! As investment advice insight on today 's markets another parallel with 2010, tends... 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