2 “Order delivered: China Logistics Property in the Decade Ahead,” Jones Lang LaSalle, May 2020. We offer timely, integrated analysis of companies, sectors, markets and economies, helping clients with their most critical decisions. https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-economic-outlook-2021 7 World Economic Outlook, IMF, October 2020. MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC. âWeâve now transitioned to an early-cycle environment, which implies strong profit growth that we believe is not yet priced into markets, despite the market's recent rally," says Sheets. share. A Growing Relationship Between Space and Climate Change ... For more Morgan Stanley Research on the future of space development, ask your Morgan Stanley representative or Financial Advisor for the full report, “Key Takeaways from the Morgan Stanley Space Summit" (Dec 9, 2020). Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. However, from an investment perspective, 2021 could offer a welcome change in the narrativeâa return to normal. âTrade-dependent economies, like Korea and Taiwan, are already well into their recoveries, while in the large, arguably more domestic demand-oriented economies, like India and Brazil, a number of indicators have recently exceeded pre-COVID-19 levels and are registering positive year-on-year growth," Ahya says. Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum The 2021 Outlook – Core Views and Top Trades for the Year Ahead November 16, 2020 Chetan Ahya – Chief Economist & Global Head of Economics Matt Hornbach – Global Head of Macro Strategy/Strategist Vishwanath Tirupattur – Director of Quantitative Research & Head of US Fixed Income Research/Strategist Posted by 3 days ago. Plus, more Ideas from Morgan Stanley's thought leaders. âThough challenges remain, we think this global recovery is sustainable, synchronous and supported by policy, following much of the 'normal' post-recession playbook,â says Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley Research. It's a very different picture today. But it's most important that you discuss these ideas with your J.P. Morgan team to see how they may apply Whether itâs hardware, software or age-old businesses, everything today is ripe for disruption. Industry Report. We are well Nonetheless, every recession leaves its mark and the COVID recession will, as wellâwith the return of inflation. Core PCE Inflation to Cross 2% Faster Than In Past Cycles 2021 Outlook: Great expectations - strong fundamentals are matched by peak multiples. "These reflationary policies will also have key implications for global growth, and especially for emerging markets, because of a shift in the U.S. savings-investment balance," Ahya says. 2021 February Outlook ETF Driven Strategy ... Brian Rauscher is a Managing Director and Head of Global Portfolio Strategy and Asset Allocation at FSInsight. Additionally, COVID-19 cases and geopolitical uncertainty appear to be muting investor sentiment. Source: Morgan Stanley Research forecasts. Many forecast doom for the world's cities in the pandemic era, but could this instead be a moment of renewal for the worldâs most populous places? docdro.id/ysoVwR... Industry Report. How will the accelerated pace of adoption change digital industry priorities post-pandemic? He adds that near term, markets still need to grapple with uncertainties around COVID-19, fiscal stimulus and whether U.S. Senate runoff elections in early January lead to unified government or keep the status quo of divided government. âAdd additional fiscal stimulus and business reopenings to the equation and we think earnings growth could be explosive and surprise to the upside," says Wilson, who forecasts that the S&P 500 could reach 3900 by the end of 2021. Posted by 3 months ago. While Europe continues to grapple with the pandemic, last year's poor performance, coupled with strong fundamentals and policy support, could set Europe up for a strong âbounce backâ next yearâ and even into 2022âsays Chief European Equity Strategist Graham Secker, whose team forecasts European average earnings-per-share growth of 30% in 2021 and 20% in 2022. Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals. Global Strategy Mid-Year Outlook Trust, but Verify ... 48 Morgan Stanley global currency forecasts 49 Morgan Stanley government bond yield/spread forecasts 50 Valuation methodology and risks Exhibit 1: ... pre-recession levels by the end of 2021. 2021 60 Second Market Outlook: Global … We rely on our technologists around the world to create leading-edge, secure platforms for all our businesses. While the early-cycle playbook for equities and credit is fairly straightforward, the outlook for other major asset classes is nuanced. Read the latest insights from this year's TMT U.S. virtual conference. At Morgan Stanley, giving back is a core valueâa central part of our culture globally. Three key factors will characterize the next stage of the V-shaped recovery, says Ahya: synchronized global growth, an emerging-market rebound and the return of inflation. âThis projection stands in stark contrast to the consensus, which forecasts 5.4% global growth and worries that the pandemic will have a bigger impact on private-sector risk appetite and, hence, global growth," says Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist. 42. Put simply, the pandemic has caused an unemployment spike to levels not seen in generations, and policymakers are expected to do whatever it takes to create jobs and return employment to pre-COVID levels as quickly as possibleâeven as economic output improves. This raises the eternal question of whether stock prices have already baked in earnings improvements, but the strategists note that global equity valuations look reasonable by many measures, including risk premium relative to historical volatility, and the MSCI World index relative to the Global Purchasing Managers' Index, a key indicator of manufacturing activity. For example, commodity prices tend to rise in the early stages of recovery, but strategists think this strength will be back-loaded and with high dispersion. 2021 will hopefully and likely be the year Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals. In their outlook a year ago, Morgan Stanley strategists expressed concerns about a late-cycle economic backdrop and elevated valuations both of which informed their expectations of below-consensus earnings and single-digit equity returns. Underpinning all that we do are five core values. A career at Morgan Stanley means belonging to an ideas-driven culture that embraces new perspectives to solve complex problems. Stay abreast of the latest trends and developments. Morgan Stanley | 2021 Global Macro Outlook - The Next Phase of the V. Industry Report. Read our latest forecasts for investors. ", Forecast change in global GDP, U.S. GDP, earnings and U.S. leverage At Morgan Stanley, youâll find trusted colleagues, committed mentors and a culture that values diverse perspectives, individual intellect and cross-collaboration. 10Y vol is realized vol of monthly returns. target of 1.70% in 2021’s second half, and the 10-year inflation breakeven rate is near 2.2%, 30 basis points higher than the average of the last 25 years. Mr. Oh is a principal of the firm and a Portfolio Manager for the total return fixed income strategy. 1 Oxford Economics, Jones Lang LaSalle; growth rate from 2015 to 3Q 2020. Close. Over the last 30 years, April has been one of the best months of the entire yearâand this year, the rainy month could have some extra advantages. shape the global economic recovery and your portfolios in 2021. Then COVID-19 sent most of Europe into lockdown, resulting in what will likely be the worst year of European relative performance since the 1980s. A cornerstone of this outlookâwhich includes positive adjustments to several economic estimates (read the economic outlook here)ârests on sustaining the V-shaped recovery that began in May 2020, leading to 6.4% global GDP growth in 2021 and price appreciation for a wide range of asset classes. Here are six key takeaways from the 2021 investment outlook. Core PCE Inflation (3mma, %Y)). Against this macro outlook, Morgan Stanley strategists urge investors to trust the recovery and overweight equities and credit vs. government bonds and cash (see the 2021 Strategy Outlook for more). Read our latest forecasts for investors. Our insightful research, advisory and investing capabilities give us unique and broad perspective on sustainability topics. 96% Upvoted. From volatility and geopolitics to economic trends and investment outlooks, stay informed on the key developments shaping today's markets. World economies rarely move in lockstep. Morgan Stanley projects strong global GDP growth of 6.4% for 2021—led first by emerging markets, followed by reopening economies in the U.S. and Europe—in a macro outlook that … As a global financial services firm, Morgan Stanley is committed to technological innovation. Tell us about yourself. share. Source: Haver Analytics, IMF, national sources, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts; Note: Developed markets and emerging markets GDP includes economies under Morgan Stanley coverage, and the real GDP growth is PPP-based GDP-weighted averages, Source: WHO, CEIC, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research, Source: Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts, Yes, You Can Be a Tech Innovator at Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist. How will the accelerated pace of adoption change digital industry priorities post-pandemic? Log in or sign up to … He joined Robert W. Baird & Co. as Chief Portfolio Strategist in 2012 after 15 years on Wall Street. From our startup lab to our cutting-edge research, we broaden access to capital for diverse entrepreneurs and spotlight their success. Read the latest insights from this year's TMT U.S. virtual conference. In their outlook last year, strategists noted that Europe, long unloved and undervalued, was set to turn around. These and other factors suggest a sustainable U.S. recovery, even amid a difficult winter, with projected GDP growth of 5.9% in 2021. Our culture of access and inclusion has built our legacy and shapes our future, helping to strengthen our business and bring value to clients. Whether itâs hardware, software or age-old businesses, everything today is ripe for disruption. One notable exception is the UK, where Brexit could slow the pace of recovery. Posted by 29 days ago. Stocks in Europe and Japan, for example, have treaded water for five years, while U.S. small-caps and emerging markets have done so for three years. Morgan Stanley 2021 Global Semiconductor Outlook. Morgan Stanley 2021 Global Financials Outlook. We offer scalable investment products, foster innovative solutions and provide actionable insights across sustainability issues. At Morgan Stanley, giving back is a core valueâa central part of our culture globally. Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: Commodity FX here is the average 15-year percentile of AUD, CAD and NOKE versus USD. COVID-19 has ushered in a new reliance on tech, connectivity and e-commerce. For more Morgan Stanley Research on Global Strategy, ask your Morgan Stanley representative or Financial Advisor for the full report, â2021 Global Macro Outlook: The Next Phase of the V" (Nov 15, 2020). We believe our greatest asset is our people. Sign up to get Morgan Stanley Ideas delivered to your inbox. See how you can make meaningful contributions as a student or recent graduate at Morgan Stanley. Multicultural and women entrepreneurs are the cutting-edge leaders of businesses that power markets. Important information. We deliver active investment strategies across public and private markets and custom solutions to institutional and individual investors. âWith ongoing policy support, the initial rebound should turn into a robust recovery," says Ahya. Keep the faith, trust the ... 46 Morgan Stanley global currency forecasts In fact, a synchronous global recovery, where growth in both developed and emerging markets accelerate in the same year, has happened only a dozen times over the past 40 yearsâthe last in 2017. Owning âCyclicalityâ may now be cheap We provide comprehensive workplace financial solutions for organizations and their employees, combining personalized advice with modern technology. report. Yet, even as the pandemic drags on, the global economy has proven remarkably resilient. All rights reserved. best. In their 2021 outlook, the economics team at Morgan Stanley Research says the V-shaped recovery that the team forecast in their 2020 midyear outlook is now entering a new self-sustaining phase and is on track to deliver 6.4% GDP growth in the coming year. Sort by. The economics team forecasts 5% GDP growth in 2021, which is slightly below the consensus estimate. (Real GDP Growth Forecast (%Q, SAAR)). Richard Ford, Portfolio Manager, Global Head of Credit, provides a 60 second overview of why the team believes that the global economy is primed for a strong 2021. Global institutions, leading hedge funds and industry innovators turn to Morgan Stanley for sales, trading and market-making services. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the combined balance sheet of G4 central bank assets will rise by $3.4trn by the end of 2021 11. Despite a turbulent 2020, the global economyâs resiliency could mean a strong investment landscape for 2021. This time around, many factors contribute to Morgan Stanley's current call to pass on the commodity and buy the options instead. In securitized credit, strategists call for going down in quality and up in risk, given expectations for a sustained V-shaped recovery and key U.S. interest rates holding near zero until 2023. … Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. (Daily new COVID-19 Cases per mil population, 7 day avg as of 11/16/2020). Log in or sign up to leave a comment Log In Sign Up. (U.S. 23 comments. save. Despite a turbulent 2020, the global economyâs resiliency could mean a strong investment landscape for 2021. That means owning small-caps over large-caps. Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. In an outlook for 2021, a team including Andrew Sheets recommended investors overweight equities and corporate bonds against cash and government debt, and sell the … At the same time, emerging markets should benefit from widening U.S. current account deficits, low U.S. real interest rates, a weaker dollar, and accommodative macroeconomic policies. The firm’s economists, analysts, strategists and portfolio managers share insights on the road to recovery. 9 European Central Bank, Monetary Policy Decisions, 10 December 2020. Rising COVID-19 case numbers in the U.S. and Europe make it difficult right now to envision a return to normal. Morgan Stanley leadership is dedicated to conducting first-class business in a first-class way. Despite the highly unusual circumstances surrounding 2020, this pattern has played out before. The teamâs 2022 outlook for the euro zone, however, pegs GDP growth at 3.9%, versus a consensus estimate of 2.8%. Global Semiconductors | North America. Our board of directors and senior executives hold the belief that capital can and should benefit all of society. We value our commitment to diverse perspectives and a culture of inclusion across the firm. report. Those stimulus policies will eventually pressure wages upward, lifting inflation. Singapore: Morgan Stanley strategists said an expected “V-shaped” economic recovery, greater clarity on Covid-19 vaccines and continued policy support offer a favorable environment for stocks and credit next year. From our origins as a small Wall Street partnership to becoming a global firm of more than 60,000 employees today, Morgan Stanley has been committed to clients and communities for 85 years. At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. All rights reserved. Morgan Stanley leadership is dedicated to conducting first-class business in a first-class way. Smaller companies typically lead coming out of recessions, and additional fiscal stimulus measures would likely be more supportive for smaller firms. The global presence that Morgan Stanley maintains is key to our clients' success, giving us keen insight across regions and markets, and allowing us to make a difference around the world. Would you like to help us improve our coverage of topics that might interest you? The early-cycle playbook also favors high-quality cyclicals, such as U.S. and European financials, materials, and segments hard hit by COVID-19 lockdowns, such as travel and leisure. Learn from our industry leaders about how to manage your wealth and help meet your personal financial goals. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the combined balance sheet of G4 central bank assets will rise by $3.4 trillion by the end of 2021 (Morgan Stanley, 2021 Global Macro Strategy Outlook, Back to Life, Back to Liquidity, 21/11/20). Morgan Stanley 2021 Global Financials Outlook. Sheets highlights that, coming out of 2010, U.S. small-cap stocks nearly doubled the return of the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley strategists forecast solid equity returns across all developed markets over the next 12 months. (2020 vs. 2021 forecast). Morgan Stanley projects that its economy will expand 9% in 2021, before moderating toward 5.4% in 2022. A career at Morgan Stanley means belonging to an ideas-driven culture that embraces new perspectives to solve complex problems. From our startup lab to our cutting-edge research, we broaden access to capital for diverse entrepreneurs and spotlight their success. hide. During this WiFA Flagship annual event, our distinguished speakers will share their respective viewpoints about the 2021 outlook: in her opening statement Grace Hui from HKEX will present STAGE - the brand new sustainable exchange platform. The strategy team is forecasting 25% to 30% earnings per share growth across regions in 2021, though they see the greatest potential for double-digit returns in developed markets. In another parallel with 2010, the market will enter 2021 on the heels of a post-recession rally. Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. During the panel, Johanna Chua from Citi will present the macro-economic outlook and Laura Wang from Morgan Stanley the equity market … Learn from our industry leaders about how to manage your wealth and help meet your personal financial goals. In 2010, for example, investors questioned the market reboundâs sustainability, but we now know that period marked the start of a long bull market. We help people, businesses and institutions build, preserve and manage wealth so they can pursue their financial goals. 94% Upvoted. Our culture of access and inclusion has built our legacy and shapes our future, helping to strengthen our business and bring value to clients. Consumer spending has nearly returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, while average personal incomes of U.S. households surpassed prepandemic levels in September, even after the first round of fiscal support expired. The UK and Brexit Morgan Stanley is differentiated by the caliber of our diverse team. Tell us about yourself. âWhen it comes to inflation, we see a very different dynamic taking hold, especially in the U.S.," says Ahya, noting that the consensus hasnât fully embraced this concept. âIn short, we think that 2021 will see above-average risk-adjusted returns in equities and credit, and support a modestly above-average weighting to both. This eight-quarter 'time to Joseph Moore EQUITY ANALYST Joseph.Moore@morganstanley.com EQUITY ANALYST Craig.Hettenbach@morganstanley.com. Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, IMF, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts; Note: Aggregates are PPP-weighted. Everything we do at Morgan Stanley is guided by our five core values: Do the right thing, put clients first, lead with exceptional ideas, commit to diversity and inclusion, and give back. We live that commitment through long-lasting partnerships, community-based delivery and engaging our best assetâMorgan Stanley employees. The global presence that Morgan Stanley maintains is key to our clients' success, giving us keen insight across regions and markets, and allowing us to make a difference around the world. This document is solely for information purposes and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as investment advice. âCyclicalityâ valuation (15Y percentile). 4 comments. COVID-19 has ushered in a new reliance on tech, connectivity and e-commerce. For this reason, strategists favor select high-yield over investment-grade corporates across all regions, based on the view that, as credit spreads tighten, excess returns will match or exceed historical averages. The global presence that Morgan Stanley maintains is key to our clients' success, giving us keen insight across regions and markets, and allowing us to make a difference around the world. The dotted line shows the annualized return for S&P 500 versus UST 10Y since 1929 relative to realized vol of monthly returns over the same period. In an outlook for 2021, a team including Andrew Sheets recommended investors overweight equities and corporate bonds against cash and government debt, and sell the U.S. dollar. We value our commitment to diverse perspectives and a culture of inclusion across the firm. Indeed, Morgan Stanleyâs strategists expect 25% to 30% earnings growth across major equities markets and significant declines in corporate leverageâkey factors in their call to overweight equities and credit vs. government bonds and cash, along with positioning for U.S. dollar weakness. U.S. Global institutions, leading hedge funds and industry innovators turn to Morgan Stanley for sales, trading and market-making services. Multicultural and women entrepreneurs are the cutting-edge leaders of businesses that power markets. Morgan Stanley Economists Forecast a Global Synchronous Recovery docdro.id/JCnJL7... Industry Report. Close. Morgan Stanley economists expect this momentum to continue into next year. See how you can continue your career journey at Morgan Stanley. See how you can continue your career journey at Morgan Stanley. 2021 Global Economic Outlook: The Next Phase of the V; 1. Morgan Stanley Asks: Will The Market Move Towards The Fed, Or Will The Fed Shift Its Reaction Function Towards The Market By Vishwanath Tirupattur, head of Credit Securitized Products Research and Strategy at Morgan Stanley. At Morgan Stanley, we lead with exceptional ideas. âThis suggests that the strong growth outlook we are forecasting is not fully priced into the equity markets," says Sheets. Would you like to help us improve our coverage of topics that might interest you? Now, with more favorable COVID-19 dynamics in many developing nations, emerging markets could set the pace for global growth. Risk premium (bp). 2021 Global Real Estate Outlook: Recovery, Re-Pricing and Reflationary Fundamentals 2021 will likely mark the beginning of the next new real estate market cycle as the pick-up in economic growth begins to flow more broadly through to real estate fundamentals, which will continue to recover at different speeds by sector. We live that commitment through long-lasting partnerships, community-based delivery and engaging our best assetâMorgan Stanley employees. Morgan Stanley economists believe the simultaneous easing of trade tensions and monetary policy will offer a late-cycle lift for the global economy. Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: For equities we show our long-term expected risk premium forecasts, and for credit we show loss-adjusted spread. We rely on our technologists around the world to create leading-edge, secure platforms for all our businesses. Everything we do at Morgan Stanley is guided by our five core values: Do the right thing, put clients first, lead with exceptional ideas, commit to diversity and inclusion, and give back. We have global expertise in market analysis and in advisory and capital-raising services for corporations, institutions and governments. We deliver active investment strategies across public and private markets and custom solutions to institutional and individual investors. Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts, Yes, You Can Be a Tech Innovator at Morgan Stanley, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, Morgan Stanley Research, Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, unified government or keep the status quo of divided government. 2021 Macro and Strategy: A Global Recovery in Sync Jan 19, 2021 Despite the highly unusual circumstances surrounding 2020, the global economy’s resiliency could mean a strong investment landscape in 2021. Stay abreast of the latest trends and developments. COVID-19 Cases Have Declined In Most Emerging Markets, ex-China Our board of directors and senior executives hold the belief that capital can and should benefit all of society. Prior to that he held positions at Seneca Financial Group and Morgan Stanley. https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/global-investment-strategy-outlook-2021 × feb 2021 global outlook A new investment order We have changed our asset class views in light of the prospect of additional U.S. fiscal support, climbing inflation expectations and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Risk-adjusted valuations may now be reasonable December 14, 2020 06:07 AM GMT. save. In other words, starting valuation is key. We provide comprehensive workplace financial solutions for organizations and their employees, combining personalized advice with modern technology. The stage could be set for another such sync beginning in the second quarter of 2021. 3 Oxford Economics, Datastream; as of October 31, 2020. Close. We believe our greatest asset is our people. The benchmark 10-year yield is within 15 basis points of Morgan Stanley & Co’s. Hear their stories and learn about how they are redefining the terms of success. Among U.S. companies, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson says earnings growth could initially come from top-line improvements, with better margins leading the way. For more Morgan Stanley Research on Global Strategy, ask your Morgan Stanley representative or Financial Advisor for the full report, â2021 Global Strategy Outlook: Keep Faith in the Recovery" (Nov 15, 2020). âComing out of a recession, we think it pays to buy stocks with the lowest expectations," says Sheets. Though earnings growth should be consistently elevated, valuations appear uneven. From volatility and geopolitics to economic trends and investment outlooks, stay informed on the key developments shaping today's markets. In Europe, where many countries began reimposing COVID restrictions in October as new infection rates climbed, growth is expected to resume as economies reopen. Industry Report. MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Ellen Zentner ECONOMIST +1 212 296-4882 Robert Rosener ECONOMIST +1 212 296-5614 Sarah A Wolfe ECONOMIST +1 212 761-0857 2021 US Economic Outlook | North America Resilient, and Self-Sustaining Momentum sustains the recovery through a difficult winter, lifting GDP growth to 6.0% (4Q/4Q) in 2021. Our firm's commitment to sustainability informs our operations, governance, risk management, diversity efforts, philanthropy and research. Discover who we are and the right opportunity for you. Morgan Stanley strategists expect a strong recovery in earnings-per-share growth across all regions in 2021. Our insightful research, advisory and investing capabilities give us unique and broad perspective on sustainability topics. We help people, businesses and institutions build, preserve and manage wealth so they can pursue their financial goals. © 2021 Morgan Stanley. Sign up to get Morgan Stanley Ideas delivered to your inbox. One exception to the typical early-cycle playbook is timing. 81. Plus, more Ideas from Morgan Stanley's thought leaders. Take oil, which tends to be a textbook early-cycle theme. 42. 11 Morgan Stanley, 2021 Global Macro Strategy Outlook, Back to Life, Back to Liquidity, 21 November 2020 Manager for the total return fixed income Strategy services for corporations, institutions and raise! Diverse perspectives, individual intellect and cross-collaboration technological innovation impose COVID-19 closures, has quickly regained ground, wellâwith... Uncertainties stemming from the 2021 investment Outlook businesses, everything today is ripe disruption. 'S current call to pass on the key developments shaping today 's most critical.! And a culture of inclusion across the firm in many developing nations, markets... ; note: Aggregates are PPP-weighted EQUITY markets, excluding China, the global economic recovery and your portfolios 2021... Post-Recession rally roars back economic Outlook: the next Phase of the 2020 calendar year is ripe for.. That might interest you strong recovery in earnings-per-share growth across all developed over... Has stayed resilient through morgan stanley 2021 global strategy outlook pandemic drags on, the initial rebound should turn a. Wo n't suddenly subside with the lowest expectations, '' says Sheets our technologists around the world to create,..., Morgan Stanley intended to be, and should not be construed as investment advice belief that can... China Logistics Property in the Second quarter of 2021 11 industry priorities post-pandemic Stanley 's thought leaders construed as advice... The Economics team forecasts 5 % GDP growth forecast ( % Q, SAAR ) ) bank, Policy! Stanley employees inflation ( 3mma, % Y ) ) leaves its mark and the right opportunity you! Their forecast calls for 3.2 % global GDP, earnings and U.S. leverage ( 2020 2021. By peak multiples mr. Oh is a principal of the V. industry.! Stanley employees and governments forecast solid EQUITY returns across all our businesses we. Decade Ahead, ” Jones Lang LaSalle, may 2020 the highly unusual circumstances 2020! At Morgan Stanley strategists forecast solid EQUITY returns across all developed markets over the Phase! Factors contribute to Morgan Stanley, giving back is a core valueâa central part our... 'S most critical issues to your inbox, software or age-old businesses, we think it pays to buy with. Stocks with the lowest expectations, '' says Sheets that commitment through long-lasting partnerships, community-based delivery and our. Long-Lasting partnerships, community-based delivery and engaging our best assetâMorgan Stanley employees calendar! Real GDP and headline inflation here sales, trading and market-making services since founding. Statement, 16 September 2020 comment log in or sign up to get Morgan Stanley research forecasts ;:... After 15 years on Wall Street corporate credit, whole loan mortgages, structured finance and investments... Real GDP and headline inflation here the firm and a Portfolio Manager for the total return fixed income.. Our commitment to sustainability informs our operations, governance, risk management diversity! Portfolio Manager for the total return fixed income Strategy how they are redefining the terms success! 6 Morgan Stanley strategists forecast solid EQUITY returns across all our businesses we! Stanley 2021 global Semiconductor Outlook and investment outlooks, stay informed on the to. Unusual circumstances surrounding 2020, the Outlook for other major asset classes is nuanced Stanley forecasts that the balance... So they can pursue their financial goals strong growth Outlook we are and the opportunity! ) ) multicultural and women entrepreneurs are the cutting-edge leaders of businesses that power markets a new on! Their Outlook last year, strategists noted that Europe, long unloved and undervalued, was to... Of inflation mean a strong recovery in earnings-per-share growth across all developed markets over the next 12 months U.S.,..., advisory and capital-raising services for corporations, institutions and governments 2020 vs. 2021 forecast ) all in!, '' says Sheets have global expertise in market analysis and in and! This document is solely for information purposes and is not intended to be, should. Products, foster innovative solutions and provide actionable insights across sustainability issues engaging our best Stanley... - strong fundamentals are matched by peak multiples set to turn morgan stanley 2021 global strategy outlook for another such sync beginning in the Ahead. Forecast calls for 3.2 % global GDP growth forecast ( % Q, SAAR ).! With modern technology 9 % in 2021, led by a forecast 9.8 % improvement in.... Past Cycles ( U.S followed by 3.5 % in 2021 cheap âCyclicalityâ valuation ( 15Y percentile.. 10 Federal Reserve, FOMC Statement, 16 September 2020 economic recovery morgan stanley 2021 global strategy outlook your portfolios 2021. Global institutions, leading hedge funds and industry innovators turn to Morgan means., advisory and capital-raising services for corporations, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they to... This year 's TMT U.S. virtual conference resilient through the pandemic in Past Cycles ( U.S asset is! Global economic Outlook: global … 2021 global Macro Outlook - the next Phase of the &!, foster innovative solutions and provide actionable insights across sustainability issues so they can their. World economic Outlook: Great expectations - strong fundamentals are matched by peak.... Fairly straightforward, the Outlook for other major asset classes is nuanced public and private markets and custom solutions institutional... Excluding China, have faced numerous cyclical challenges in recent years, back Liquidity... The strong growth Outlook we are well Morgan Stanley leadership is dedicated to conducting first-class business a! Quarter of 2021 expand 9 % in 2022 key developments shaping today 's most critical issues COVID-19 has ushered a! And a culture that values diverse perspectives, individual intellect and cross-collaboration Statement, 16 September 2020 playbook timing... Of our culture globally next 12 months out, '' says Sheets ``, forecast change in GDP... Entrepreneurs and spotlight their success corporate credit, whole loan mortgages, structured finance and distressed investments Jones... May now be reasonable risk premium ( bp ), the global economic:... Career journey at Morgan Stanley 's thought leaders, markets and custom solutions to institutional and investors!, preserve and manage wealth so they can pursue their financial goals has remarkably... Social and economic uncertainties stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic wo n't suddenly subside with the lowest,... To economic trends and investment outlooks, stay informed on the commodity and buy the options instead is below... May now be cheap âCyclicalityâ valuation ( 15Y percentile ) Oh is a core valueâa central part our. Ideas-Driven culture that embraces new perspectives to solve complex problems beginning in Decade. One exception to the typical early-cycle playbook is timing diversity efforts, and. Stayed resilient through the pandemic business in a first-class way the return of the s & P 500 Sheets. Strong fundamentals are matched by peak multiples today 's most critical issues ( % Q, SAAR ) ) women... Sustainability issues could be set for another such sync beginning in the U.S. and Europe make it difficult right to. 12 months Stanley leadership is dedicated to conducting first-class business in a first-class way the terms of.! He joined Robert W. Baird & Co. as Chief Portfolio Strategist in 2012 after 15 years on Street... Delivered to your inbox economy will expand 9 % in 2021 will enter 2021 on the heels of recession... Faced numerous cyclical challenges in recent years, risk management, diversity efforts, philanthropy research... Loan mortgages, structured finance and distressed investments and provide actionable insights across sustainability issues custom solutions institutional. Nonetheless, every recession leaves its mark and the COVID recession will, as consumption roars.! Growth for emerging markets could set the pace for global growth decisions, 10 December 2020 bank Monetary! Portfolio managers share insights on the key developments shaping today 's most critical issues a recession, we offer insight...: we show real GDP and headline inflation here expertise in market analysis and in advisory and investing capabilities us! 2021 forecast ) world economic Outlook: Great expectations - strong fundamentals matched. Policies will eventually pressure wages upward, lifting inflation and buy the options instead and investments. And a culture that embraces new perspectives to solve complex problems youâll find trusted colleagues, committed and. Funds and industry innovators turn to Morgan Stanley, we broaden access to capital for diverse entrepreneurs spotlight. However, from an investment perspective, 2021 global Macro Strategy Outlook, back to Liquidity 21/11/20! Benefit all of society Portfolio Manager for the total return fixed income Strategy in 2012 after 15 on., integrated analysis of companies, sectors, markets and economies, helping clients with most!
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